DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/19 11:12
All Grains Lower at Midday
Trade is lower at midday, with corn bull spreading in play.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 35 higher. The dollar
index is 25 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with
crude 0.30 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker
with gold 2.40 lower.
Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade seeing light bull
spreading as choppy rangebound trade continues in the short term. The forecast
looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, before
potential pattern changes into the end of the month with warmer temps expected
to boost growth from the weekend on. The weekly ethanol report showed
production down 15,000 barrels per day, with stocks down 189,000 barrels, with
ethanol futures fading post report. Corn basis remains on a firmer trend. On
the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.35, with the new high printed
Monday at $4.64 resistance.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade fading again as we
remain just below the highs left on Monday. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and
oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall
with oil strength the short term story. World export demand remains slow, and
the South American currencies cheap but firmer early in the week. Field work
will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for
soybeans before potential more open weather at the end of the month with trade
trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs. The July
chart support is the 200-day at $9.07, with next resistance the $9.21 recent
Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower at midday with harvest pressure pushing
the winter wheats lower with little other fresh news. The Kansas City/Chicago
spread is swing back to Kansas City this morning, narrowing by a couple cents.
The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter
wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help
push things along to the west. The dollar moved back below 97 on the index as
well with the feed expected to cut rates today. Black Sea area weather remains
mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in
some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase
feeding on that front. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at
$4.51. with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59, which we are testing at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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