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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/02 11:00

   Grains, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 9 to 11 cents higher, soybean futures are 3 to 5 cents 
higher and wheat futures are 12 to 26 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 115. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 20 lower. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are weaker with crude 
down 2.75. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are flat with gold up 


   Corn futures are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with weaker spread action as 
September-December goes to slight carry, with early weakness turning to buying 
as wheat leads trade higher. Ethanol margins should remain in line with recent 
days with corn and energies staying rangebound short term. Brazil will continue 
to move along with the end of the second crop season with frost issues still 
being watched as crop estimates continue to trickle lower; near-term weather 
looks to remain mixed into August after rains in much of the Western Belt. Corn 
basis continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as wheat 
and southern sorghum start to become available to feed. Weekly export 
inspections improved at 1.384 million metric tons (mmt) with steady to slightly 
lower conditions and progress just ahead of average expected on the weekly crop 
report. On the September contract, resistance remains at the $5.53 20-day 
moving average which we are just above at midday with further support at the 
lower Bollinger band at $5.30.


   Soybean futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade fading back 
toward the recent lows again before better meal action and spillover trade drug 
action back higher. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points 
lower. The weather pattern brings some rain to the west short term, and after 
that looks better for the east into pod fill. South America will continue to 
ship soybeans while the run in canola values turn more sideways to lower, 
keeping a lid on oil values as well. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in 
recent days. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 181,193 metric tons (mt), 
with weekly crop progress showing steady to slightly lower conditions, and 
slightly above average progress. On the September soybean chart has resistance 
at the 20-day at $13.65 which we fell below last week, with the lower Bollinger 
band at $13.15 as further support.


   Wheat futures are 12 to 26 cents higher at midday with KC trade leading as 
Russian crop estimates fall and spreads unwind overnight with spring wheat 
harvest expanding. Harvest will continue to roll across Europe and the Black 
Sea with mixed results so far and Canada on deck while the dollar has edged 
back above 92 on early strength. KC holds at 26-cent discount to Chicago, 
narrowing a bit with Minneapolis at a 194-cent premium fading back to the lower 
end of the range. Weekly crop progress is expected to show winter wheat harvest 
nearly complete, spring wheat should be a bit ahead of normal with conditions 
remaining terrible. Weekly export inspections softened a little at 387,743 mt. 
KC September on the chart has support at the 20-day at 6.34 with resistance the 
upper Bollinger band at $7.00.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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