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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/28 10:47

   Grain Futures in the Green Midday Tuesday

   Corn trade is 9 to 15 cents higher; beans are 23 to 26 cents higher and 
wheat is 3 to 17 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn trade is 9 to 15 cents higher; beans are 23 to 26 cents higher and 
wheat is 3 to 17 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the DOW 
down 100 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.55 higher. Interest rate products 
are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up $1.50. Livestock trade is weaker. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $5.00.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 9 to 15 cents higher at midday Tuesday with trade seeing flat 
to firmer spread action and support from the crop progress report, oversold 
conditions and potentially warmer weather into July ahead of the Stocks and 
Acres report coming Thursday. Trade will continue to watch the forecast with 
more focus on corn pollination temperatures as we push into July with the back 
of the forecast looking warmer for some, with uncertain moisture placement but 
immediate concerns limited. The export wire will need to show value buyers 
picking up bushels on the break, with nothing on the daily report yet. Weekly 
crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 67%, and poor to very poor at 
8% with silking at 4%, same as average, as maturity catches up. The ethanol 
margins are likely to remain rangebound with strong blender margins remaining 
in place with unleaded moderating in recent days. Basis remains solid through 
most of the Corn Belt, with most place moving their bids to the September 
contract. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $6.54 with lower 
Bollinger Band just above that at $6.63, which we have pushed back above 
Tuesday, with the 20-day well above the market at $7.11. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean trade is 23 to 26 cents higher at midday with flat spread action as 
trade continues to work to rebuild momentum since starting to bounce from 
Thursday's lows as products firm to support crush action. Meal is $5.00 to 
$6.00 higher with oil 0.85 cent to 0.95 cent higher. Biodiesel margins are very 
good at the moment, which should bolster crush recovery a bit. South America is 
moving towards post-harvest footing at this point with planting wrapped up for 
full season in the U.S., and getting started on double crop, with wheat harvest 
moving quickly with moisture needed to boost development. Basis is fading a bit 
at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily wire remaining quiet. 
Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 65% with poor to very 
poor at 8%, with 91% emerged, same as average, with 7% blooming versus 11% on 
average. On the August soybean chart, support is the fresh low at $14.94 with 
the 20-day well above the market at $16.10.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 3 to 17 cents higher with Chicago leading action at midday 
while spring wheat lags on better weather, while harvest pressure may start to 
ease for winter wheat as it seeks to break the recent losing streak. Spring 
wheat conditions were unchanged at 59% good to excellent and 8% poor to very 
poor, and heading at 8% versus 34% on average while winter wheat was 41% 
complete versus 35% on average, along with steady conditions at 30% good to 
excellent and 43% poor to very poor on the weekly crop progress report. Weather 
in the Plains should allow for harvest to continue moving with a few areas 
slowed by rains. The dollar continues to hold in the upper end of the range 
with the strong ruble helping competitiveness as well, with Russia expected to 
have near-record supplies with other Black Sea supply diminishing and Middle 
East tenders shrinking as buyers seek ways to stretch supplies. The KC 
September chart has support at the fresh low at $9.77 scored Monday with the 
lower Bollinger Band at $9.75 and the 20-day still well above the market at 
$11.10.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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